Politics & News
1.What politics markets are
Questions like 'Who wins the Texas Senate race?' or 'Which party controls the House?'. Prices are the crowd's chance; winners pay $1.00.
These settle on official, certified results — sometimes weeks after election night.
2.Polls vs prices
Polls measure opinion today; markets price the final result, including turnout and polling error. A candidate can lead in polls and still be under 50¢.
Big news (debates, scandals, court rulings) moves prices within minutes.
3.Long-dated money
Money in an election market a year out can't be used elsewhere. A 90¢ 'sure thing' that resolves in 12 months pays about 11% if right — and loses 100% if wrong.
Check the end date before you buy.
4.Starting safely
Paper-trade first. Avoid betting on your own side because you want it to win.
Read the resolution source and edge cases (recounts, runoffs, withdrawals).
Live examples
"Yes" trades at 39¢ → the crowd's chance is about 39%. $10 buys about 24.5 contracts at 39¢ (+fee), paying $24.54 if it happens.
"Yes" trades at 61¢ → the crowd's chance is about 61%. $10 buys about 15.9 contracts at 61¢ (+fee), paying $15.89 if it happens.
"Yes" trades at 40¢ → the crowd's chance is about 40%. $10 buys about 24.0 contracts at 40¢ (+fee), paying $24.00 if it happens.
Live examples use current Polymarket US prices and refresh every few minutes. Educational only — not financial advice.